Bonnie dissipates; rain still expected

3 day rainfall from Tropical Storm Bonnie

4:00pm Monday, May 30, 2016

Bonnie is no longer a tropical system, but the moisture will linger for the next several days. We will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms, and some will contain heavy rain, but widespread heavy rain is not expected.

The tropical storm did bring much needed rain to our part of the Carolinas. Three day rainfall from Tropical Storm Bonnie averaged 1-2 inches of rain in our area. Some places saw up to 3″, some less than 1/2″.

3 day rainfall from Tropical Storm Bonnie
3 day rainfall from Tropical Storm Bonnie

 

11:00am Monday, May 30, 2016

Bonnie has dissipated, according to the National Hurricane Center, and is now a post-tropical cyclone. The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie is 55 miles WSW of Myrtle Beach, and is moving ENE at 2 mph. Max sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. There is little change expected in strength over the next 48 hours.

8:00am Monday, May 30, 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie has slowly drifted to the east throughout the overnight and will slowly move up the coast to the NE throughout the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are still around 30 mph as central pressure holds at 1011 mb.

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Shower activity has been spotty to scattered throughout the entire weekend but our heavy rain potential increases today.

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The low country has received the brunt of the heavy rain so far with Tropical Storm Bonnie, now downgraded to a tropical depression, the heavy rain chances will move north along with it. Rainfall, so far, across the area has added up to between 1″ to near 3″ and we can expect to double that over the next 3 days. Bonnie is moving to the NE at around 3 mph and is not expected to speed up until mid-week.

Capture3  Capture4

That means lingering rain that can really add up, especially is the areas where the heavy downpours develop.

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Most models are showing anywhere 2″ to 4″ over the next 3 days with Bonnie slowly moving to our North by Wednesday. Bonnie will pick up some speed by mid-week as it weakens, we could see a little more dry time by the end of the week.

5:00pm Sunday, May 29, 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie has stalled near Charleston, weakening slightly. Maximum sustained winds are now 30 mph. The storm is about 25 mi WNW of Charleston and 100 mi WSW of Myrtle Beach. Central pressure increased to 1011 mb. As Bonnie spins around for the next few days, scattered showers and storms are likely throughout the Carolinas. Rain will continue to be heavy at times.

ts bonnie

8:30am Sunday, May 29, 2016

The center of Tropical Depression Bonnie made landfall just east of Charleston, on the isle of Palms around 8:30 am. The storm is about 80 miles SW of Myrtle Beach, moving north at 9 mph. Max sustained winds remain at 35 mph, and the central pressure remains at 1009 mb.

The storm is expected to move northward today, but our forecast remains the same with scattered showers and possibly a few storms throughout Sunday and Monday.

Landfall

 

8am Sunday, May 29, 2016

Tropical Storm Bonnie has weakened to a tropical depression. The storm is about 25 miles SE of Charleston and about 80 miles SSW of Myrtle Beach. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. It’s slowly moving to the north at 9 mph. The center of the storm is expected to move onshore later this morning and slowly move northeastward through the rest of today.

 

5am Sunday, May 29, 2016

At 5 am Sunday, Tropical Storm Bonnie is located about 60 miles SE of Charleston. Bonnie has max sustained winds of 40 mph, and is moving N at 8 mph. The storm has weakened and is struggling to hold on to its tropical storm status. More rain is expected today – the showers will be on and off with some heavy downpours possible. When all is said and done we could see 1-3″ of rain locally, with a few spots seeing upwards of 4″ depending on those heavy downpours. Wind won’t be an issue.

 

11pm Saturday, May 28, 2016

Bonnie’s maximum winds have been increased to 45 mph with the latest advisory and the storm is still nearly stationary. Bonnie is expected to remain a weak tropical storm as it continues slowly drifting toward the South Carolina coast. Currently, Bonnie is around 130 mi SSE of Charleston. It should make landfall tomorrow afternoon or early evening, weakening back to a tropical depression within 36 hours. Rain, heavy at times, remains the greatest hazard to the Carolinas. Rain totals will be 1-2″ areawide, with localized 2-4″ possible through Memorial Day.

ts bonnie stats

 

8:00pm Saturday, May 28, 2016

Bonnie’s maximum winds remain at 40 mph, pressure has dropped slightly, and is now stationary. Landfall somewhere in south South Carolina is still expected within the next 18-24 hours.

4:45pm Saturday, May 28, 2016

As of 4:30pm Saturday, the storm has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie, with max sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is located about 120 miles SSE of Charleston and is moving NW at 10 mph. Bonnie is expected to make landfall between Charleston and Beaufort within the next 18-24 hours. After landfall, Bonnie is expected to weaken and wobble around the Carolinas, bringing continued rainfall.

2:00pm Saturday, May 28, 2016

At 2pm Saturday, the storm has yet to strengthen but the forecast from the NHC still expects Tropical Depression Two to be upgraded to a tropical storm later today.The storm is located about 150 SSE of Charleston, and is moving NW at 13mph with max sustained winds of 35 mph.

 

11:00am Saturday, May 28, 2016

At 11am Saturday, the storm is located about 195 miles SSE of Charleston. The storm is continuing to move to the northwest, currently it’s moving at 13 mph with max sustained winds of 35 mph. The depression is beginning to move over the eastern-most portion of the Gulfstream. The storm is still forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, due in part to the energy it will receive from the warmer Gulstream waters. After strengthening to a tropical storm, it is quickly expected to weaken back to a depression as it approaches the South Carolina coast.

 

8:00am Saturday, May 28, 2016

At 8am Saturday, the storm is located about 225 miles south-southeast of Charleston. While the storm is still moving to the northwest at 14 mph, a decrease in its speed moving forward is expected later today and on Sunday as the system approaches the South Carolina coast. Max sustained winds are still at 35 mph. The depression is forecast to reach minimum tropical storm strength later today as it moves over the Gulfstream. The storm would then be upgraded and named Tropical Storm Bonnie.

 

5:00am Saturday, May 28, 2016

At 5am Saturday, the track of this storm hasn’t changed, and the storm has yet to strengthen. Tropical Depression Two is about 265 miles southeast of Charleston with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph. The storm is moving NW at 14 mph.

 

8:00pm Friday, May 27, 2016

At 8pm, the center of the storm is located at 28.8N, 75.1W, or about 400 miles SE of Charleston.The minimum central pressure is 1009mb.

 

5:00pm Friday, May 27, 2016

Tropical Depression Two has formed about 400 miles southeast of Charleston with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm is moving WNW at 13 mph.Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River northeast to Little River.

The storm is forecast to become Tropical Storm Bonnie later tonight or Saturday. The storm will continue it’s current motion through Saturday, then may slow down as it approaches the coast Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast Saturday night. Winds sustained at 45 mph are possible. Rain will be the main impact from this storm, as 2-4 inches of rain are possible. Strong rip currents, rough surf and a storm surge of 1-2 feet are possible along the coast.

 

3:00pm Friday, May 27, 2016

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Hurricane hunter planes are currently making the first flight into the tropical weather system heading our way for the weekend. So far they have found a closed center of circulation, but winds are below tropical storm strength. They will continue to investigate this storm system over the next few hours, and may name this a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie this afternoon or evening.

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The forecast track continues to point to the storm heading toward the Carolinas. Timing on the storm is coming more in line, with the center of the storm hitting the coast late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This is important, because once the storm is over land, it will no longer get any stronger.

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Rain continues to be the main issue with this storm system. Many places will see 1-2 inches of rain, with a few locations seeing up to 4 inches. The best chance for rain with this storm will be Saturday and Sunday, but scattered thunderstorms will still be possible Monday. If the storm is faster, and moves ashore Saturday night, the worst of the weather could be overnight with improving weather on Sunday.

At the beach, an extended period with east winds will create strong rip currents. If this storm becomes a tropical storm, rough surf will also be an issue.

 

9:00am Friday, May 27, 2016

The moisture we’ve been watching to the northeast of the Bahamas has become better organized and is showing signs of circulation. Tropical/sub-tropical development is likely throughout today as conditions remain favorable for tropical or sub-tropical cyclone development.

low 1  low 2

Not much will change with the forecast even if the system does develop into a tropical/sub-tropical system. We’re still looking at the potential for wide-spread heavy rain with winds not being a big factor. This is because the system will not have much time in the warm Caribbean waters to intensify. The rain chances will build throughout the weekend with the best chance for heavy rain on Sunday.

future 1  future 2

The low looks to set up somewhere between Charleston, SC and Jacksonville, FL early Sunday morning before moving up the coast as we start next week.

low 3

Rain will continue throughout much of next week but it will become more spotty when the low moves to our north. Expect another update this afternoon. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the low later today and forecast models will get a more accurate handle on the track of the low once it develops.

6:00pm Thursday, May 26, 2016

The moisture that we have been watching east of the Bahamas all week long has started moving back toward the Southeast coast. The evolution of a potential tropical storm is progressing as forecast, and it looks like we may have a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow.

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Thunderstorms developing near the center of the area of rotation

 

A broad, stretched out area of low pressure has developed today. This afternoon, thunderstorms are developing close to the center of this rotation, which is a sign that the system is getting better organized.

The storm system will continue to move toward the Carolinas tonight and tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center has the first Hurricane Hunter flight planned for Friday afternoon. The storm system will slowly approach the Carolinas on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms moving ashore, then pushing inland later in the day.

Sunday looks to be a rather cloudy day with rain and thunderstorms. The storm will either move away Monday, or start to weaken, bringing scattered thunderstorms. After this storm moves away, tropical moisture will linger across the Carolinas, so scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through next week.

This will likely not be a big impact storm. The main threat will be heavy rain with potential for some flooding. Rip currents will also be strong at the beaches.

 

10:00am Thursday, May 26, 2016

Looks like the chances for a wet Memorial Day weekend are on the rise. The chances for tropical development east of the Bahamas are increasing even more as shower activity along the stalled front are becoming better organized. Ocean temperature are favorable for development and conditions are expected to become even more conductive for tropical or sub-tropical formation on Friday as the system moves to the Northwest.

The National Hurricane Center has raised its chance of development to 70% over the next 5 days, 50% over the next 2 days.

The only real changes to our holiday weekend forecast will be better potential for more wide-spread heavy rain if this systems turns sub-tropical/tropical. While the water temperatures in the Caribbean are favorable for development and intensification, the system will not hang out there long enough to get very strong. Therefore, wind will not be a big factor, just some heavier rain.

wind

The models still show the pressure of the low well above 1000mb. The rain should start up Saturday afternoon and continue at least through Tuesday evening, with the potential for the heaviest rain between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening.

rain

Rain could potentially last into Thursday as the system slowly pushes off to the Northeast.

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An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to take a look at the low on Friday. Expect updates when they become available.

 

8:00pm Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Chances for tropical development are increasing east of the Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a front stalled over the Atlantic Ocean. Ocean water temperatures in this area are between 80-85 degrees, which is warm enough for tropical storm development. Several computer models develop and area of low pressure along this front Thursday or Friday. There is a chance that this could develop into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has raised its chance of development to 60%. Yesterday the NHC had the chance at 30%.

Regardless of tropical development, this moisture will be moving northwest toward the Southeast coast. This will bring a chance for scattered thunderstorms starting Saturday, and continuing through the weekend and into next week. If a tropical storm would develop, there would be a period of heavier, steadier rain. It is still too early to know exact track or timing of any tropical system.

Computer model forecasts for potential tropical system
Computer model forecasts for potential tropical system

 

Hurricane season officially begins next Wednesday, June 1. One of the main areas of tropical development during the months of May and June is off the Southeast coast from Florida through the Carolinas. Oftentimes, when a cold front stalls in this area, it leads to tropical development. This is what we are watching for this week.

If a tropical depression or storm does form, it will likely not have enough time over warm water to gather much strength. The main impact from a potential storm will be heavy rain. Winds will be a lower concern.

Timing for development will be either Thursday or Friday, with the storm system heading toward the Southeast coast Sunday or Monday. Early computer model forecasts show potential tracks ranging from Florida to North Carolina. Computer models are not very accurate with tropical systems until a storm actually forms
 so once it does develop, timing and track forecasts will be more confident.
4:30pm Monday, May 23, 2016

Hurricane season starts next Wednesday… What? The “off season” is over already? Doesn’t it seem like we were just talking about a hurricane a few months ago?

NOAA CARIBBEAN
This NOAA satellite image taken Friday, Jan. 15, 2016 at 12:45 AM EST shows a stationary front over the southern Bahamas and Cuba. Rain showers and isolated accompany this boundary as it slowly drifts to the south. The remainder of the basin is quiet with mostly sunny skies. In contrast, Hurricane Alex is over the central Atlantic Basin. Alex has maximum winds of 80 miles per hour and will affect the Azores as it moves northward. (Weather Underground via AP)

 

Well, we were. Don’t forget that we have already had the first hurricane of 2016. Hurricane Alex (BLOG- Early Alex) formed in mid January, and is one of only two hurricanes on record to have formed so early in the year (the other is a hurricane in 1938).

So for me a hurricane in the middle of the “off season” makes it hard to believe that hurricane season is here already. But I may be slapped back into reality by a tropical storm over Memorial Day weekend.

Some of the long range computer models are forecasting an area of low pressure to develop east of Florida, then move toward the Carolina coast for the weekend. Please keep in mind that computer models are not very good at predicting tropical systems before they even form
 and so far, the storm has not formed. Chances are, this will not happen
 But there is a possibility, so let’s talk about it.

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The cold front that moved through the Carolinas on Saturday has pushed offshore, and will stall over ocean waters that are warm enough to support tropical development. Occasionally when a front stalls over warm tropical water, an area of low pressure forms, and develops into a tropical system. This is actually how most early season storms that effect the Carolinas form. This is how last year’s Tropical Storm Ana formed.

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Several computer models develop an area of low pressure along this front by Thursday, then move it toward the Carolinas over the weekend. One model has the rain starting as early as Saturday, others bring rain in on Sunday.

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If this storm system forms, the main impact for us will be rain. Tropical storm force winds (39mph or higher) are possible if everything comes together for the storm, but will likely be on the lower end of the scale. Hurricane force winds are not expected.

If the storm does not form, there is still a chance that the moisture heads our way. If this happens, we are looking at scattered thunderstorms, which is normal weather for this time of year.

FYI
 the next name on the Atlantic hurricane name list is Bonnie.

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