Serious flooding continuing as Matthew moves away

Update: Saturday, October 8, 11pm:

Matthew remains a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum central pressure of 982 mb. Matthew is located 35 mi south of Cape Lookout, North Carolina and is moving east-northeast at 14 mph. Matthew is moving away from South and North Carolina and its effects will soon be very limited.

matthew1

Wind has started to diminish with most stations that are still able to report showing sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. Wind will become calmer tomorrow, but it will still be a breezy day.

Matthew is expected to weaken tomorrow as it moves off the coast of North Carolina into the open Atlantic and disintegrating into a remnant low by Monday.

River flooding will be the biggest threat left from Matthew in the Carolinas in the coming weeks, with many area rivers likely to stay in flood stage for weeks. The Lumber River in Lumberton is likely to set a new record at 20.5′.

Update: Saturday, October 8, 8 pm:

Matthew remains a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum central pressure of 981 mb. The storm is moving ENE at 13 mph and is located 40 mi east of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Matthew is moving away from South Carolina.

matthew2

The last rain band on the back side of Matthew will result in very light rain in the Pee Dee and border belt overnight, but no additional significant rain totals are expected.

Tropical storm force winds on the back side of Matthew extend about 185 miles from the center. That means it will continue to be windy overnight with sustained winds of 40-50 mph and gusts 60+ mph, but after midnight the wind will start to calm down. Wind should slow to below tropical storm force (less than 40 mph) early Sunday morning.

matthew1

Flash flood warnings remain in effect for much of the area, and we’ll be monitoring river levels for the next several days as we wait for the runoff to add up. Rainfall totals for most places across northeast South Carolina are in the 10-15” range. Many roadways are dealing with flooding conditions and we continue to receive reports of washed out/impassable roadways. Emergency management officials and first responders are asking people to stay inside.

Update: Saturday, October 8, 5 pm:

Hurricane Matthew is still spreading rain across the Carolinas as the storm hugs the coast.

Matthew is still a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm is now moving to the east/northeast at 13 mph, and minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Matthew is about 15 miles west/southwest of Cape Fear.

matthew-5pm

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties.

The heaviest rain is moving away from South Carolina, but we’re now dealing with significant wind on the backside of Matthew. This is something we were warning viewers about all morning – often times the wind on the backside of a hurricane can be even stronger than the wind around the front of the storm, and much of the low country was dealing with 60-80 mph winds earlier this morning even after Matthew continued moving to the northeast. Windy conditions will continue this evening and into tomorrow, even as the storm moves closer to the North Carolina coast and eventually tracks offshore.

peak-wind-5pm

Flash flood warnings remain in effect for much of the area, and we’ll be monitoring river levels for the next several days as we wait for the runoff to add up. Rainfall totals for most places across northeast South Carolina are in the 10-15” range. Many roadways are dealing with flooding conditions and we continue to receive reports of washed out/impassable roadways. Emergency management officials and first responders are asking people to stay inside at this point as we wait out the storm.

Coastal flooding and storm surge are beginning to subside, but the effects will be felt for days, weeks, and maybe even months to come. We have multiple reports of damage to piers along the Grand Strand.


Update: Saturday, October 8, 2 pm:

A serious flooding event is unfolding across northeast South Carolina as Hurricane Matthew continues to dump rain across our area.

Matthew is still a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm is moving to the northeast at 12 mph, and minimum central pressure is 972 mb. What’s left of the center of Matthew is just offshore of Myrtle Beach, and about 55 miles west/southwest of Cape Fear.

2pm-matthew

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Horry County through 4pm Saturday.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina issued a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the southeastern half of Horry County from Conway to the Grand Strand. This Flash Flood Emergency is in effect through 3:15pm.

This is the first Flash Flood Emergency issued by the National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina. These are only issued in extremely rare cases when exceptional flash flooding is expected to occur. Complete road failures are possible along with sinkholes. Driving will be extremely dangerous for the next several hours.

2pm-rainfall

Many places across our area have already seen 8-10 inches of rain, and we could see another 5-8 inches fall this afternoon as Matthew gets closer to the Grand Strand. Many roadways are dealing with flooding conditions and we’re receiving reports of washed out/impassable roadways. Emergency management officials and first responders are asking people to stay inside at this point as we wait out the storm. Flash flood warnings are in effect, and we’ll be monitoring river levels for the next several days as we wait for the runoff to add up.

We’re also dealing with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion, something we expected especially around high-tide this afternoon. We have multiple reports of damage to piers along the Grand Strand.

Windy conditions will continue through this afternoon and into tomorrow, even as the storm moves closer to the North Carolina coast and eventually tracks offshore.


Update: Saturday, October 8, 11 am:

Hurricane Matthew has made landfall southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina. Max sustained winds are down to 75 mph. The storm is still moving to the northeast at 12 mph, and minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Matthew is located 55 miles south/southwest of Myrtle Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Horry County through 4pm Saturday.

matthew-11am

The forecast track still brings the center of the storm 10-25 miles offshore early this afternoon, and because of this life-threatening flooding continues to be the main threat this afternoon, along with storm surge and wind.

close-track-11am

Many places across our area have already seen 8-10 inches of rain, and we could see another 5-8 inches fall this afternoon as Matthew gets closer to the Grand Strand. Many roadways are dealing with flooding conditions and we’re receiving reports of washed out/impassable roadways. Emergency management officials and first responders are asking people to stay inside at this point as we wait out the storm. Flash flood warnings are in effect, and we’ll be monitoring river levels for the next several days as we wait for the runoff to add up.

rainfall-11am

We’re also waiting for high-tide, coming up early this afternoon. At 11am we’re nearly 2.5 hours away from high tide and we already have surge breaking through several area dunes. With a strong onshore flow near the same time as high tide, storm surge could be 6-9 feet for some places in Georgetown and Horry counties.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center of Matthew currently, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center of Matthew at the moment. The immediate coast will see hurricane-force winds throughout today (60-80 mph). Tropical-storm-force winds of 50-60 mph will be possible to the east of I-95, and 40-50 mph winds to the west of I-95. Windy conditions will continue through tomorrow, even as the storm moves closer to the North Carolina coast and eventually tracks offshore.

track-11am


Update: Saturday, October 8, 8am:

Strong winds and dangerous storm surge associated with Hurricane Matthew are affecting the South Carolina coast from the low country northward toward the Grand Strand.

Matthew is now a Category 1 storm with max sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is moving to the northeast at 12 mph, and minimum central pressure is 962 mb.

8am-matthew

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Horry County through 4pm Saturday.

 

Matthew is located 20 miles south/southeast of Charleston. While Matthew is forecast to continue weakening as it makes its way up the southeast coast, the storm is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeast coast of the United States late this weekend.

The forecast track still brings the center of the storm 10-25 miles offshore around 2pm today, and because of this, hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds will be a concern along with heavy rainfall and the flooding that will occur from the rainfall. Storm surge will be a major issue, as well.

8am-track

Impacts:

Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles from the center of Matthew currently, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center of Matthew at the moment. The immediate coast will see hurricane-force winds throughout today, with the worst of it starting around 10am and continuing through 6pm tonight (60-80 mph). Tropical-storm-force winds of 50-60 mph will be possible to the east of I-95, and 40-50 mph winds to the west of I-95.

Most of our counties will see excessive rainfall through early Sunday morning. We’ve already seen 6-8 inches of rain in some places this morning. We could see 12-15” of rain accumulating along the immediate coastlines of Horry and Georgetown counties. To the east of I-95, we could see 8-12” of rain. To the west of I-95, we could see 5-8” of rain. With our soil already being saturated from above average rainfall in September, flash flooding will be an issue. Flooding issues could include impassable roads, road wash-outs, many low-lying and prone areas flooding, and structures in low-lying areas flooding.

8am-rainfall

Storm surge threats remain high for Georgetown and Horry counties. We could see anywhere from 6-9’ of storm surge this weekend for Georgetown County, and Horry County up through Cherry Grove; from Cherry Grove north into Brunswick County, NC, we could see 3-6’ of storm surge. The greatest threat for storm surge will be around high tide this afternoon (1:24pm Saturday).


Update: Saturday, October 8, 5am:

Hilton Head Island is currently seeing the worst of Hurricane Matthew, which still remains a Category 2 storm with max sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm is moving to the north/northeast at 12 mph, and minimum central pressure is 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties.

5am-matthew

Matthew is located 20 miles southeast of Hilton Head Island, and about 60 miles southwest of Charleston. While Matthew continues to weaken as it makes its way up the southeast coast, the storm is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeast coast of the United States late this weekend.

5am-track

With the earlier forecast shift in Matthew’s track bringing the center of the storm 15-25 miles offshore Saturday afternoon, hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds will be a concern, but major threats to our area will be heavy rainfall and the flooding that occurs from it, as well as storm surge.

5am-close-track

 

Impacts:

Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles from the center of Matthew currently, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center of Matthew at the moment. The immediate coast will see hurricane-force winds throughout today, with the worst of it late morning through mid-afternoon (60-80 mph). Tropical-storm-force winds of 50-60 mph will be possible to the east of I-95, and 40-50 mph winds to the west of I-95.

Most of our counties will see excessive rainfall through early Sunday morning. We could see 12-15” of rain along the immediate coastlines of Horry and Georgetown counties. To the east of I-95, we could see 8-12” of rain. To the west of I-95, we could see 5-8” of rain. With our soil already being saturated from above average rainfall in September, flash flooding will be an issue. Flooding issues could include impassable roads, road wash-outs, many low-lying and prone areas flooding, and structures in low-lying areas flooding.

Storm surge threats remain high for Georgetown and Horry counties. We could see anywhere from 6-9’ of storm surge this weekend for Georgetown County, and Horry County up through Cherry Grove; from Cherry Grove north into Brunswick County, NC, we could see 3-6’ of storm surge. The greatest threat for storm surge will be around high tide this afternoon (1:24pm Saturday).


Update: Saturday, October 8, 2am:

Hurricane Matthew continues to be a strong category 2 hurricane, but will slowly weaken overnight. At 2am the storm was located 95 miles SSW of Charleston. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the Fernandina Beach, FL to Surf City, NC. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC.

14633390_1220213198034699_5689661468324505375_o

 

At 2am, Matthew’s winds were at 105mph and the storm was moving N at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was up to 955mb.

Matthew will continue to move north for the next few hours, then should turn to the northeast by Saturday morning. This should keep the hurricane just off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, but if the turn to the northeast does not happen in time, Matthew could landfall south of Charleston.  Matthew is expected to continue to slowly weaken tonight, but will remain a hurricane as it hits the Carolinas.

Hurricane Matthew will impact our part of the Carolinas through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain, but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

The 2am National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 10-25 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would bring hurricane conditions to Horry and Georgetown counties, and tropical storm force conditions to the Pee Dee.

Heavy rain will continue through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds are expected tonight. Hurricane force winds will be possible in Horry and Georgetown counties from Saturday morning through afternoon.  Waves at the beaches will be 10-14 feet through Saturday. Coastal flooding will occur with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible along the Grand Strand. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – waves 10-14 feet through Saturday

Rain – Expect 8-12 inches east of I-95. Coastal parts of Horry and Georgetown counties could see up to 15” of rain. Areas west of I-95 will average 5-8 inches of rain. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – The worst of the wind will occur from 10am Saturday until 8pm Saturday night. Hurricane force winds reaching 60-80 mph will be possible across Georgetown and Horry counties. Tropical storm force in the Pee Dee will continue into Saturday evening with winds reaching 40-60 mph.

Storm Surge – Coastal flooding is likely with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County and Georgetown counties from Cherry Grove southward. North of Cherry Grove into North Carolina, 3-6 feet of storm surge is possible. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – a small risk for weak, short lived tornadoes exists along the coast tonight.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Friday, October 7, 11pm:

Hurricane Matthew continues to be a strong category 2 hurricane, but will slowly weaken overnight. At 11pm the storm was located 70 miles SSE of Savannah, GA. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the Fernandina Beach, FL to Surf City, NC. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC.

14542400_1220106984711987_5705877793027747394_o

At 11pm, Matthew’s winds were at 105mph and the storm was moving N at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was at 948mb.

Matthew will continue to move north for the next few hours, then start to turn to the northeast by Saturday morning. This will keep the hurricane just off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.  Matthew is expected to continue to slowly weaken tonight, but will remain a hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas.

Hurricane Matthew will impact our part of the Carolinas through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain, but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

14615708_1096348373775818_4911429632353529036_o

The 11pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 15-25 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would bring hurricane conditions to Horry and Georgetown counties, and tropical storm force conditions to the Pee Dee.

Heavy rain will continue through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds are expected tonight. Hurricane force winds will be possible in Horry and Georgetown counties from Saturday morning through afternoon.  Waves at the beaches will be 10-14 feet through Saturday. Coastal flooding will occur with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible along the Grand Strand. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – waves 10-14 feet through Saturday

8pm-rainfall

Rain – Expect 8-12 inches east of I-95. Coastal parts of Horry and Georgetown counties could see up to 15” of rain. Areas west of I-95 will average 5-8 inches of rain. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

8pm-wind

Wind – The worst of the wind will occur from 10am Saturday until 8pm Saturday night. Hurricane force winds reaching 60-80 mph will be possible across Georgetown and Horry counties. Tropical storm force in the Pee Dee will continue into Saturday evening with winds reaching 40-60 mph.

8pm-surge

Storm Surge – Coastal flooding is likely with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County and Georgetown counties from Cherry Grove southward. North of Cherry Grove into North Carolina, 3-6 feet of storm surge is possible. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – a small risk for weak, short lived tornadoes exists along the coast tonight.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Friday, October 7, 8pm:

Hurricane Matthew, now a Category 2 storm, currently has max sustained winds of 110 mph and is moving to the north at 12 mph. Minimum central pressure is 948 mb.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties.

8pm-matthew

Matthew is located 55 miles to the east/northeast of Jacksonville Beach, Florida, which correlates to 105 miles south/southeast of Savannah, Georgia. Minor weakening has occurred with Matthew over the last several hours, and while weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern coast of the United States on Sunday.

8pm-track

With the earlier forecast shift in Matthew’s track bringing the center of the storm 15-25 miles offshore Saturday afternoon, hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds will be a concern, but major threats to our area will be heavy rainfall and the flooding that occurs from it, as well as storm surge.

8pm-close-track

Impacts:

Hurricane-force winds extend 60 miles from the center of Matthew currently, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center of Matthew at the moment. Wind will be an issue late tonight through late Saturday. We could see 60-80 mph winds at the immediate coast, 50-60 mph winds east of I-95, and 40-50 mph winds to the west of I-95.

8pm-wind

Most of our counties will see excessive rainfall through early Sunday morning. We could see 12-15” of rain along the immediate coastlines of Horry and Georgetown counties. To the east of I-95, we could see 8-12” of rain. To the west of I-95, we could see 5-8” of rain. With our soil already being saturated from above average rainfall in September, flash flooding will be an issue. Flooding issues could include impassable roads, road wash-outs, many low-lying and prone areas flooding, and structures in low-lying areas flooding.

8pm-rainfall

Storm surge threats have increased in Georgetown and Horry counties. We could see anywhere from 6-9’ of storm surge this weekend for Georgetown County, and Horry County up through Cherry Grove; from Cherry Grove north into Brunswick County, NC, we could see 3-6’ of storm surge. The greatest threat for storm surge will be around high tides (12:40am Saturday, 1:24pm Saturday).

8pm-surge


Update: Friday, October 7, 5pm:

Hurricane Matthew has weakened to a category 2 hurricane, and at 5pm was located 40 miles E of Jacksonville, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the Flagler/Volusia county line in Florida to Surf City, NC. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC.

14543732_1219884308067588_3628593068565204667_o

At 5pm, Matthew’s winds were at 110mph and the storm was moving N at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was at 948mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving north tonight. This will keep the hurricane just off the Florida and Georgia coasts.  Matthew is expected to continue to slowly weaken tonight, but will remain a hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas..

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas tonight through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain, but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

14633653_1219890841400268_2287391499642949965_o

The 5pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 15-30 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would bring hurricane conditions to Horry and Georgetown counties, and tropical storm force conditions to the Pee Dee.

Rain will get heavier tonight, and will continue through Saturday. Wind will steadily increase tonight with tropical storm force winds after midnight. Hurricane force winds will be possible in Horry and Georgetown counties from Saturday morning through afternoon.  Waves at the beaches will build tonight, and will be 10-14 feet tomorrow. Coastal flooding will occur with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible along the Grand Strand. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – waves building tonight, 10-14 feet tomorrow.

14612368_1219891291400223_9181181537422773058_o

Rain – Expect 8-12 inches in Horry, Georgetown, Marion, Williamsburg and lower Florence county. Some spots in Horry and Georgetown counties could see up to 15” of rain. The Pee Dee west of Marion will average 5-8 inches of rain, and 3-5 inches in Chesterfield county. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

14556730_1219897948066224_3690074410821403600_o

Wind – tropical storm force winds will start after midnight. The worst of the wind will occur from 10am Saturday until 8pm Saturday night. Hurricane force winds reaching 60-80 mph will be possible across Georgetown and Horry counties. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee after midnight tonight and continue into Saturday evening with winds reaching 40-60 mph.

14567458_1219898251399527_1376739653337155278_o

Storm Surge – Coastal flooding is likely with 6-9 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County and Georgetown counties from Cherry Grove southward. North of Cherry Grove into North Carolina, 3-6 feet of storm surge is possible. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – a small risk for weak, short lived tornadoes exists along the coast tonight.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Friday, October 7, 2pm:

Hurricane Matthew, still a Category 3 storm, currently has max sustained winds of 115 mph and is moving to the north/northwest at 12 mph. Minimum central pressure is 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Georgetown and Horry counties. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Darlington, Dillon, Marlboro and Robeson counties.

2pm

Matthew is continuing to drench the northeast coast of Florida as it continues moving north. Minor weakening has occurred with Matthew over the last few hours, and while weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern coast of the United States on Sunday.

2pm-track

With the earlier shift in Matthew’s track, bringing the center of the storm 20-25 miles offshore Saturday afternoon, wind, rain/flooding, and storm surge are the major threats we’re watching for the Grand Strand and Pee Dee.

2pm-close-track

Impacts:

Hurricane-force winds extend 60 miles from the center of Matthew currently, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center of Matthew at the moment. Wind will be an issue late tonight through late Saturday. We could see 60-80 mph winds at the immediate coast, 50-60 mph winds east of I-95, and 40-50 mph winds to the west of I-95.

wind-2pm

Most of our counties will see excessive rainfall through early Sunday morning. Horry, Georgetown, Williamsburg, and parts of Florence and Marion counties could see 8-12” of rain through Sunday. Along and to the west of I-95, we could see 5-8” of rain. To the west of Darlington and Marlboro counties, we could see 3-5” of rain. With our soil already being saturated from above average rainfall in September, flash flooding could be an issue this weekend.

rainfall-2pm

Storm surge threats have increased in Georgetown and Horry counties. We could see anything from 6-9’ of storm surge this weekend, the greatest threat being around high tides (12:40am Saturday, 1:24pm Saturday). Northern Horry county into Brunswick County, NC could see 3-6’ of storm surge.

storm-surge-2pm


Update: Friday, October 7, 11am: 

Matthew remains a Category # hurricane with winds at 120 mph. It’s moving up the coast of Florida with the eyewall is hugging the coast. Matthew is moving NNW at 12 mph and the minimum central pressure has risen to 947 mb.

matthew-11am

Matthew is expected to change little in intensity during the next 6 to 12 hours, but it should begin to weaken at a faster pace in 24 hours as the shear increases. Matthew is reaching the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and is running into the path of the mid-latitude westerlies. This should steer Matthew northward and then northeastward during the next 36 hours.

matthew-11am-track

Models are still showing the intensity of Matthew dropping down to a Cat 2 as it approaches the Low County, then down to a Cat 1 as it brushes our coastline. Unfortunately, the latest modes are trending a little further west, therefore, Georgetown and Horry Counties have been upgraded to a Hurricane warning.

Hurricane Warnings are in place still from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warning is now a Hurricane Warnings from the Anclote River to Suwanee River and north of the South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

Most of the impacts along the Grand Strand and the Pee Dee remain the same as in the 5 am update: torrential flooding rain 8-12″ at the coast, 5-8″ east of I-95, 3-5″ west of I-95, tropical storm force winds (40-60 mph) areawide through most of tomorrow with possible hurricane force winds for the immediate coast, and dangerous storm surge.

This latest update just shows how a slight change in the forecast track can have big impacts. This track can still change, if it does we’ll update you here.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Friday, October 7, 8am:

Matthew remains a major Category 3 hurricane at 120 mph. As of 8 am, Matthew was located 35 mi NNE of Cape Canaveral, Florida or 45 mi ESE of Daytona Beach, Florida. The eyewall is hugging the east coast of Florida now, and as Matthew continues moving NNW at 13 mph for the rest of the day that will continue. Matthew’s minimum central pressure has risen to 944 mb.

matthew8am

There were no major changes to Matthew’s track or intensity with this update. Hurricane Warnings for the Bahamas have been canceled. Hurricane Warnings are in place still from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place from the Anclote River to Suwanee River and north of the South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

Impacts along the Grand Strand and the Pee Dee remain the same as in the 5 am update: torrential flooding rain 8-12″ at the coast, 5-8″ east of I-95, 3-5″ west of I-95, tropical storm force winds (40-60 mph) areawide through most of tomorrow, and dangerous storm surge.

matthew-track-8-am

Update: Friday, October 7, 5am:

Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly overnight due to its interaction with Florida, but is still a major Category 3 Hurricane with 120 mph winds. At 5 am, Matthew was located 40 mi ESE of Cape Canaveral, Florida and moving NNW at 13 mph. Minimum central pressure was 938 mb. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Jupiter Inlet, FL to South Santee River, SC. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Boca Raton to the Jupiter Inlet, the Anclote River to Suwanee River and north of the South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC.

matthew5am

Matthew will be moving NNW paralleling the coast of Florida for the next 18-24 hours, gradually weakening. By 2 AM Saturday, Matthew should be approaching the Lowcountry as a weak Category 3 storm. As Matthew makes the turn to the east early tomorrow morning, it will likely weaken further. There is still some uncertainty with Matthew’s track, but most computer models keep Matthew just offshore of the Grand Strand. Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds are expected for much of the area tomorrow, regardless of Matthew’s track.

matthew-track-5-am

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas tonight through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain (8-10″+ coast, 5-8″+ east of I-95, 3-5″ west of I-95) but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

 

Update: Thursday, October 6, 11pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a major category 4 hurricane, and at 11pm was located 125 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Boca Raton, FL to South Santee River, SC, including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC.

14612448_1219280584794627_5539780544006396792_o

At 11pm, Matthew’s winds were at 130mph and the storm was moving NW at 13mph. Minimum central pressure was at 939mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest for the next couple of hours, then turning more to the north overnight. Matthew will approach the Florida coast tonight, then move up the coast tomorrow. Matthew is expected to weaken slightly overnight, but will remain a major hurricane through Friday.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday night through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain, but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

14612502_1219284471460905_1857313414440927206_o

The 11pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 50-75 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds even west of I-95

A few rain showers are possible tonight, and we are expecting periods of rain tomorrow, especially late in the day. Heavy rain will start tomorrow night and last through Saturday. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet tonight, then 5-7 feet on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Friday night and continue through Saturday night. Coastal flooding is possible with 3-6 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County, and over 6 feet of storm surge in Georgetown County. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight due to a gusty northeast wind. Waves 5-7 feet Friday. Larger waves expected Saturday.

14500706_1095629107181078_8496130880819375091_o

Rain – Expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 5-8 inches of rain east of I-95, and 3-5 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

14525117_1095629337181055_1351172668649736893_o

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur from Noon Saturday until 11pm Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds reaching 50-65 mph will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Saturday night. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday morning into Saturday evening with winds reaching 40-50 mph.

14556490_1095629633847692_3592154242412567542_o

Storm Surge – Coastal flooding is possible with 3-6 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County, and over 6 feet of storm surge in Georgetown County. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Thursday, October 6, 8pm:

Hurricane Matthew made landfall around 8pm on the western end of Grand Bahama Island with max winds of 130 mph. Matthew remains a major category 4 storm with peak winds of 130 mph (some weakening of wind has occurred since the last update). Minimum central pressure is still 938 mb, and the storm is about 75 miles east of West Palm Beach and moving to the northwest at 13 mph.

8pm

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC. Tropical Storm Warnings are indicated in yellow; Flash Flood Watches are indicated in green; Hurricane Warnings are indicated in red, but none of our counties are under a hurricane warning at this time.

8pm-watches

There are no major changes to the storm’s track as Matthew approaches South Carolina heading into this weekend. The National Hurricane Center forecast track still has Matthew 60-90 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Hurricane-force winds are currently extending up to 60 miles from the center, but tropical-storm-force winds are extending up to 185 miles from the center.

8pm-closer-track

With this forecast, heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Friday night and continue through Saturday night. Coastal flooding is possible with 3-6 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County, and over 6 feet of storm surge in Georgetown County. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

8pm-track

 


Update: Thursday, October 6, 5pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a major category 4 hurricane, and at 5pm was located 100 miles ESE of West Palm Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Golden Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC, including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC.

14612451_1219114144811271_3891415944578734406_o

At 5pm, Matthew’s winds were at 140mph and the storm was moving NW at 14mph. Minimum central pressure was at 938mb.

Hurricane Matthew continues to strengthen, and will approach the Florida coast as a strong category 4 hurricane.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest for the next couple of hours, then turning more to the north later this evening. This will keep Matthew in the Bahamas this evening, then move close to the east coast of Florida tonight.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday night through Saturday night. The main impact will be flooding rain, but we will also see strong wind, coastal flooding and extreme beach erosion.

14556808_1219103734812312_5485898195394296243_o

The 5pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 60-90 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds even west of I-95

A few rain showers are possible tonight, and we are expecting periods of rain tomorrow, especially late in the day. Heavy rain will start tomorrow night and last through Saturday. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet tonight, then 5-7 feet on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Friday night and continue through Saturday night. Coastal flooding is possible with 3-6 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County, and over 6 feet of storm surge in Georgetown County. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight due to a gusty northeast wind. Waves 5-7 feet Friday. Larger waves expected Saturday.

Rain – Expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 5-8 inches of rain east of I-95, and 3-5 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur from Noon Saturday until 11pm Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds reaching 50-65 mph will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Saturday night. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday morning into Saturday evening with winds reaching 40-50 mph.

Storm Surge – Coastal flooding is possible with 3-6 feet of storm surge possible in Horry County, and over 6 feet of storm surge in Georgetown County. Coastal flooding is more likely at high tides, which will occur Saturday at 12:40am and 1:24pm. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Thursday, October 6, 2pm:

Matthew’s peak wind remains at 140 mph, maintaining its status as a major Category 4 hurricane. The storm is moving NW at 14 mph and is currently located 125 miles ESE of West Palm Beach, Florida. The minimum central pressure is 939 mb.

2pm-matthew

A Hurricane Watch is in effect north from Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC. There are no tropical watches or warnings for any of our counties at the moment, including Georgetown and Horry counties. However, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coastal waters along Georgetown and Horry counties (highlighted in blue). We also have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for our counties to the east of I-95 in anticipation of heavy rainfall from Matthew heading into this weekend (highlighted in green).

warnings-2pm

 

The forecast track for Matthew calls for the eye of the storm to be near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the next few hours, then heading for the east coast of the Florida peninsula Friday. Some strengthening is possible with Matthew over the next several hours, and the hurricane is still expected to be at Category 4 strength while it approaches the Florida coast.

2pm-track

With the 2pm update, there hasn’t been much change in Matthew’s track through the weekend when it will be making its closest pass to the Carolinas – likely as a Category 2 hurricane.  As this storm progresses on and models continue to update, any nudges east or west in Matthew’s track will have big impacts on the Carolinas in terms of the duration and strength of tropical force wind and torrential rainfall.  Most computer models continue to take the center of Matthew offshore, which would keep most of the heavy rain offshore as well.But if Matthew moves closer to the coast, heavy torrential downpours and tropical storm force winds would be more likely.

2pm-closer-track

Our current thinking:

Friday: scattered showers during the day, and a persistent wind out of the east around 20-30 mph. Waves will increase to around 5-7 feet.

Saturday: heavy rainfall will begin after midnight Friday, and winds will be increasing heading overnight into Saturday morning. We could potentially be experiencing tropical storm force wind (40-65 mph) after 2 am at the coast. We will see the heaviest rain Saturday and this is when flooding will be a major concern. Wind will be at tropical storm force for the coast all day Saturday, and the Pee Dee could start experiencing tropical storm force wind (40-50 mph) after 6 am Saturday. Storm surge will be a concern starting around 10 am Saturday through 2 am Sunday.

Sunday: tropical storm force wind ends in the Pee Dee around 2 am; ends at the coast around 6 am. Storm surge still a threat through

Rainfall totals look to be around 8-12 inches along the coast, 5-8 inches through Williamsburg, Florence, Dillon and Marion counties, and 3-5 inches of rain for Darlington and Marlboro counties.

Storm surge could be over 6 feet in Georgetown county. Storm surge looks to be around 3-6 feet in Horry county.


Update: Thursday, October 6, 11am:

Matthew has maintained its windspeed of 140 mph and is a major Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane Matthew is moving NW at 14 mph and is currently located 180 mi SSE of West Palm Beach, Florida. Minimum central pressure is 940 mb. The Hurricane Warning has been extended north into Edisto Beach, SC but there are NO Hurricane watches or warnings in the Grand Strand or Pee Dee at this time.

matthew6

Hurricane Matthew will continue moving NW towards the east coast of Florida today with additional intensification possible. It will pass very near by the central east coast of Florida as a Category 4 hurricane around 8 AM tomorrow, moving north along the coast to the Georgia/Florida line around midnight Saturday. Matthew will turn northeast early Saturday morning while it weakens.

With this latest update, there has been no significant change in Matthew’s track, timing, or strength through the weekend when it will be making its closest pass to the Carolinas as a likely strong Category 2 storm.  There is still a high degree of uncertainty in Matthew’s track after midnight Saturday, and any nudges east or west in Matthew’s track will have big impacts on the Carolinas in terms of the duration and strength of tropical force wind and torrential rainfall.  Most computer models continue to take the center of Matthew offshore, which would keep most of the heavy rain offshore as well.But if Matthew moves closer to the coast, heavy torrential downpours and tropical storm force winds would be more likely. All impacts depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the track (and impacts) will continue to change between now and Saturday.

matthew7

The biggest impacts remain: very heavy rain, with rain totals along the coast of 8-10″+ and in the Pee Dee 4-6″+. Any change to Matthew’s track will change those numbers. Soil is already saturated from all the rain in September, and with tropical storm force winds (40-60 mph) for much of the area through Saturday and some of Sunday, downed trees and power lines will also become an additional problem. Rough surf, high waves 6-8 ft, coastal flooding, and storm surge of 3-6 feet should also be expected.

Keep in mind this information can, and likely will, change between now and Saturday, when the main impacts of Matthew are expected to begin.


Update: Thursday, October 6, 8am: 

Significant changes were made to Hurricane Matthew’s windspeed as it increased to 140 mph winds and is moving NW at 12 mph.

Matthew is located 215 mi SSE of West Palm Beach, Florida. Matthew is expected to move toward Florida for the remainder of today and tonight as a Category 4 storm, turning northeast late tomorrow and then moving toward the Carolinas. There is still significant uncertainty in Matthew’s track for the weekend, which will determine exact impacts along the Grand Strand and Pee Dee. As of now, impacts remain the same as in the 5am update.

matthew5


Update: Thursday, October 6, 5am:

Hurricane Hunter and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flew into Hurricane Matthew overnight. Matthew strengthened overnight and is still major Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph winds. Minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Matthew is located 255 mi SSE of West Palm Beach, Florida and moving NNW at 12 mph.

matthew-5am

Matthew will be passing over a favorable environment for strengthening and is still expected to strengthen back into a Category 4 hurricane before brushing the east coast of Florida overnight. Hurricane Warnings have been expanded northward to Altamaha Sound in Florida and Georgia, and Hurricane Watches have been expanded into the South Santee River in South Carolina. There are NO hurricane watches or warnings at this time for the Grand Strand or Pee Dee, but that could change as Matthew gets closer.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew and tweaks in its track for impacts in the eastern Carolinas this weekend. Computer models are in good agreement that Matthew will move very close to the east coast of Florida tonight, but there is some uncertainty in track after Friday night. Most computer models take the center of Matthew offshore, which would keep most of the heavy rain offshore as well. If Matthew moves closer to the coast, heavy torrential downpours and tropical storm force winds would be more likely. All impacts depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the track (and impacts) will continue to change between now and Saturday.

matthew1

A few showers will push on shore today, but the bulk of the rain will happen late Friday through Saturday. Winds will start to increase in the early morning hours on Saturday with tropical storm force winds expected nearly areawide by 8 AM Saturday. Downed trees and power lines will likely be an additional problem from the high wind gusts, torrential rain, and saturated soils. Waves will grow from 3-5 feet today to 6-8+ feet Friday. Coastal flooding could also be a problem with heavy rain and persistent NE winds.


Update: Wednesday, October 5, 11pm:

Hurricane Hunter aircraft report that Matthew has weakened slightly, but it is expected to strengthen later tonight and tomorrow. A Hurricane Watch has been issued in South Carolina, south of Edisto Beach.

Hurricane Matthew is still a major category 3 hurricane, and at 11pm was located 325 miles SE of West Palm Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in Florida, from Golden Beach to the Fernandina Beach, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina from the Fernandina Beach, FL to Edisto Beach, SC.

14525181_1218444511544901_8321432292826454619_o

At 11pm, Matthew’s winds were at 115mph and the storm was moving NW at 10mph. Minimum central pressure was at 961mb.

Hurricane Matthew has weakened since Tuesday due to its interaction with land and the higher terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Matthew is now over warm water, and is becoming better organized. It will likely strengthen some over the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has the storm strengthening back to a category 4 before approaching Florida.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest through the Bahamas. The hurricane will continue to move through the Bahamas Thursday, and will be near the east coast of Florida Thursday evening.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Saturday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

14612548_1218454844877201_8589910122757364597_o

The 11pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 55-80 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds as far as I-95

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast Thursday. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet  Thursday, then growing larger on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. With the storm track so far offshore, the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast may still change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Thursday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Friday, and will stay rough Saturday and Sunday.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 5-8 inches of rain east of I-95, and 3-5 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday afternoon overnight Saturday night and into Sunday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Sunday evening. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Storm Surge – a storm surge of 3-6 feet is possible along the Grand Strand causing coastal flooding. Large waves will also add to the coastal flooding threat and will lead to severe beach erosion and possible property damage along the coast.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 8pm:

Hurricane Hunter aircraft report that Matthew has weakened slightly, but it is expected to strengthen later tonight and tomorrow.

Hurricane Matthew is still a major category 3 hurricane, and at 8pm was located 360 miles SE of West Palm Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in Florida, from Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect in Florida and Georgia from the Flagler/Volusia county line to the Savannah River.

14612571_1218323378223681_7119931467183655073_o

At 8pm, Matthew’s winds had dipped to 115mph and the storm was moving NW at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was at 962mb.

Hurricane Matthew has weakened since yesterday due to its interaction with land and the higher terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Matthew is now over warm water, and is becoming better organized. It will likely strengthen some over the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has the storm remaining a category 3, but there is a chance that it could become a cat 4 once again.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest through the Bahamas. The hurricane will continue to move through the Bahamas tomorrow, and will be near the east coast of Florida Thursday evening.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Saturday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

14567541_1218212368234782_3224779195231892326_o

The 8pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 55-80 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds as far as I-95

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tomorrow. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet  tomorrow, then growing larger on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. With the storm track so far offshore, the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast may still change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Thursday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Friday, and will stay rough Saturday and Sunday.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 3-6 inches of rain east of I-95, and 2-4 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday afternoon overnight Saturday night and into Sunday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Sunday evening. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Storm Surge – the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 5pm:

The forecast for Hurricane Matthew has pushed back to the northwest off the Carolinas, bringing it a little closer to the Grand Strand.

Hurricane Matthew is still a major category 3 hurricane, and at 5pm was located 400 miles SE of West Palm Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in Florida, from Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect in Florida and Georgia from the Flagler/Volusia county line to the Savannah River.

At 5pm, Matthew’s winds were holding steady at 120mph and the storm was moving NW at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was at 963mb.

14542322_1218207304901955_4632808477454709378_o

Hurricane Matthew has weakened since yesterday due to its interaction with land and the higher terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Matthew is now over warm water, and is becoming better organized. It will likely strengthen some over the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has the storm remaining a category 3, but there is a chance that it could become a cat 4 once again.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest through the Bahamas. The hurricane will continue to move through the Bahamas tomorrow, and will be near the east coast of Florida Thursday evening.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Saturday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

14567541_1218212368234782_3224779195231892326_o

The 5pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 55-80 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds as far as I-95

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tomorrow. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet  tomorrow, then growing larger on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. With the storm track so far offshore, the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast may still change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Thursday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Friday, and will stay rough Saturday and Sunday.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 3-6 inches of rain east of I-95, and 2-4 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday afternoon overnight Saturday night and into Sunday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Sunday evening. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Storm Surge – the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 2 pm:

The forecast for Hurricane Matthew continues to push farther east of the Grand Strand, but it also continues to slow down. This will mean less wind, but a storm that lasts longer,

Hurricane Matthew is still a major hurricane, but is now a Category 3 storm, and at 2pm was located 70 miles S of Long Island, Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in Florida, from Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect in Florida from the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach.

14570684_1218104064912279_4284199200676496426_o

At 2pm, Matthew’s winds were holding steady at 120mph and the storm was moving NW at 12mph. Minimum central pressure was at 963mb.

Hurricane Matthew has weakened since yesterday due to its interaction with land and the higher terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Matthew is now over warm water, and is becoming better organized. It will likely strengthen some over the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has the storm remaining a category 3, but there is a chance that it could become a cat 4 once again.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving northwest through the Bahamas. The hurricane will continue to move through the Bahamas tomorrow, and will be near the east coast of Florida Thursday evening.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Saturday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

The 2pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 60-90 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would keep hurricane conditions offshore, but would still bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the coast. Inland areas would see less rain, and the potential for tropical storm force winds as far as I-95.

14543944_1218124134910272_1020767015495919066_o

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tomorrow. The northeast wind at 15-25 mph that we have seen today will continue tonight through Friday.  Waves at the beaches will stay rough at 3-5 feet  tomorrow, then growing larger on Friday. Heavy rain and stronger winds would arrive Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. With the storm track so far offshore, the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast may still change. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Thursday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Friday, and will stay rough Saturday and Sunday.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 8-12 inches of rain along the coast. The Pee Dee will average 3-6 inches of rain east of I-95, and 2-4 inches west of I-95. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy through Friday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday afternoon overnight Saturday night and into Sunday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast early Saturday morning and stay above tropical storm force through Sunday evening. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Storm Surge – the threat for a storm surge is low, but large waves and a persistent east to northeast wind will cause coastal flooding.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. The risk for tornadoes with Matthew is low.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 11 am:

Matthew has been showing signs of re-intensification over the last few hours and an eye is now visible on satellite. Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been flying in Matthew today and found max sustained winds of 120 mph, which is a strong Category 3. Matthew is moving NW at 12 mph and is about 55 mi NNE of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba.

matthew1

Over the next 36 hours, Matthew is expected to move over the Bahamas as a strong Category 3 storm with potential to strengthen into a Category 4 storm as it passes close by to the east coast of Florida early Friday morning. At that point, most computer models show Matthew making a turn to the right and weakening. Hurricane Matthew will likely be a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds through Saturday, when it’s expected to make the closest approach to the Grand Strand. While many computer models keep Matthew offshore, there are still a few that have Matthew making landfall in or near the Carolinas.

The impacts and timing of Matthew are likely to change still as there is a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast track after Friday morning. Uncertainty exists whether Matthew will interact with and be influenced by the stalled front and low pressure just offshore and turn further east (away from the eastern Carolinas), or whether Matthew will be strong enough to overpower it and stay with a track closer to the coast.

Impacts from Matthew remain the same with this update: torrential downpours at the coast with potential for 6-8″ of rain through late Saturday/early Sunday and 2-4″ rain in the Pee Dee, tropical storm force winds along the coast (40-60 mph sustained) with higher gusts starting late Friday, flooding from heavy rain, downed power lines and trees, and high surf, waves, and enhanced rip current risk. A landfall south of the Grand Strand would increase the tornado threat, which for now is small but non-zero.

matthew2

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 8 am:

Matthew continues to be a Category 3 hurricane, with max sustained winds of 115 mph. Matthew is moving NW at 10 mph and currently 45 mi ENE of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba. There has not been any significant change in Matthew’s track with the latest update.

matthew3

Hurricane watches and warnings are in place as they were at 5 AM. Without much change in track or intensity for Matthew when it is expected to approach the Grand Strand, impacts in the eastern Carolinas remain the same.

matthew4

Update: Wednesday, October 5, 5 am: 

Hurricane Matthew has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm after weakening while over eastern Cuba yesterday, with winds of 125 mph. Matthew is located 65 mi NNW of the eastern tip of Cuba. Previous Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in place, with the Hurricane Watch extending now to the Georgia/Florida line.

matthew1

Matthew is moving N at 10 mph with a minimum central pressure of 962 mb. Matthew is expected to turn to the northwest later today as it moves over the Bahamas. Some restrengthening is possible during this time. Matthew will continue moving northwest tomorrow into Friday, approaching the east coast of Florida.

We’re still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in the Carolinas late Friday into Saturday. The latest models have once again shifted, this time more to the east with many models keeping Matthew offshore. Exact impacts will depend on the track…any nudges left would bring higher winds and more rain to more of the area, with nudges right keeping more of the heavy rain and stronger winds offshore. There is still uncertainty with Matthew’s track, and it will likely change between now and Friday.

matthew2

Rain and breezier winds from Matthew will begin in the Grand Strand tomorrow, with the worst of the impacts happening Friday and Saturday. Waves will build from 5 ft today to 6 ft Friday, and up to 8-9 feet Saturday. Rip current threat will increase. Large waves and coastal flooding will be possible, along with very heavy rain and gusty winds. Wind and rain will be highest along the Grand Strand, less in the Pee Dee.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 11 pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 11pm was located 20 miles NW of eastern tip of Cuba. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in Florida, from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect in Florida from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

14481774_1217475454975140_7227265565725986601_o

At 11pm, Matthew’s winds were down to 130 mph and was moving N at 8mph. Minimum central pressure was at 950mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving away from Haiti and Cuba and into the Bahamas. The current forecast has the center of Matthew moving into the southeastern Bahamas tonight, then the central Bahamas Wednesday. Matthew is forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas late Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

14542452_1094036000673722_8481777651646533241_o

The 11pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 35-50 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon and evening. This track would bring hurricane conditions to the Grand Strand, and since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain and tropical storm force winds in the Pee Dee.

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tomorrow. It will stay breezy tonight, and become windy tomorrow with a northeast wind at 15-25 mph… and waves will continue to build, with 3-5 foot waves tomorrow, then growing larger on Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday. There will also be a threat for a storm surge, large waves and coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 5-8 inches of rain along the coast with some spots seeing over 10 inches of rain. The Pee Dee will average 3-5 inches of rain. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast early Saturday morning. Winds will reach hurricane force along the Grand Strand Saturday afternoon through evening. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee Saturday afternoon. The strongest winds will last until Saturday night, then slowly diminish through Sunday.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 8 pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 5pm was located 15 miles SW of eastern tip of Cuba. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect for Florida from the Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line.

ct9kmvkuiaewffl

At 8pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 140mph and was moving N at 9mph. Minimum central pressure was at 949mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving away from Haiti and Cuba and into the Bahamas. The current forecast has the center of Matthew moving into the southeastern Bahamas tonight, then the central Bahamas Wednesday. Matthew is forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas late Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

The 8pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 30-40 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday morning and early afternoon, making landfall Near Morehead City, NC Saturday afternoon. This track would bring hurricane conditions to the Grand Strand, and since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain and tropical storm force winds in the Pee Dee.

14567511_1217190911670261_481867056533426524_o

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until late Friday into Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tonight. It will stay breezy tonight, and become windy tomorrow with a northeast wind at 15-25 mph… and waves will continue to build, with 3-5 foot waves tomorrow, then growing larger on Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday. There will also be a threat for a storm surge, large waves and coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and is our area is put under a hurricane watch, it would likely occur on Wednesday. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.

Hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds, and if a hurricane warning is issued for our area, that would occur Wednesday night or Thursday. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 5-8 inches of rain along the coast with some spots seeing over 10 inches of rain. The Pee Dee will average 3-5 inches of rain. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur on Saturday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast Friday evening. Winds will reach hurricane force along the Grand Strand Saturday morning through afternoon. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee after 8am Saturday. The strongest winds will last until Saturday evening, then slowly diminish through Saturday night.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 5 pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 5pm was located 30 miles SSW of eastern tip of Cuba. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect for Florida from the Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line.

14570644_1217173785005307_7356415937955343907_o

At 5pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 140mph and was moving N at 9mph. Minimum central pressure was at 949mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving away from Haiti and toward eastern Cuba. The current forecast has the center of Matthew moving over eastern Cuba this evening, the southeastern Bahamas tonight, then the central Bahamas Wednesday. Matthew is forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for impacts in our part of the Carolinas late Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

The 5pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 30-40 miles off the Grand Strand Saturday morning and early afternoon, making landfall Near Morehead City, NC Saturday afternoon. This track would bring hurricane conditions to the Grand Strand, and since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain and tropical storm force winds in the Pee Dee.

14567511_1217190911670261_481867056533426524_o

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until late Friday into Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tonight. It will stay breezy tonight, and become windy tomorrow with a northeast wind at 15-25 mph… and waves will continue to build, with 3-5 foot waves tomorrow, then growing larger on Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday. There will also be a threat for a storm surge, large waves and coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and is our area is put under a hurricane watch, it would likely occur on Wednesday. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.

Hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds, and if a hurricane warning is issued for our area, that would occur Wednesday night or Thursday. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – If the storm takes the current forecast track, expect 5-8 inches of rain along the coast with some spots seeing over 10 inches of rain. The Pee Dee will average 3-5 inches of rain. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. The worst of the wind will occur Friday and Saturday. If the storm takes the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds will start along the coast after Noon on Friday. Winds will reach hurricane force along the Grand Strand after 2am Saturday. Winds will reach tropical storm force in the Pee Dee after 2am Saturday. The strongest winds will last until Noon on Saturday, then slowly diminish through Saturday night.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 2pm:

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 2pm was located 55 miles S of eastern tip of Cuba. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect for Florida from the Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line.

14570549_1217043215018364_7557248012486258654_o

At 2pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 145mph and was moving N at 10mph. Minimum central pressure was at 949mb.

The forecast over the next 12 hours has Matthew moving away from Haiti and toward eastern Cuba. The current forecast has the center of Matthew moving over eastern Cuba this evening, the southeastern Bahamas tonight, then the central Bahamas Wednesday. Matthew is forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

We are still watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday… although it does look likely that we will see at least some impact from the storm.

The 2pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be just off the Grand Strand early Saturday morning, making landfall along the South Carolina/North Carolina border Saturday morning. This track would bring hurricane conditions to the Grand Strand, and since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain and tropical storm force winds in the Pee Dee.

14468401_1217059501683402_1771566633118279572_o

While the hurricane is not forecast to arrive in our part of the Carolinas until late Friday into Saturday, we will start to see some rain showers along the coast tonight. It will stay breezy tonight, and become windy tomorrow with a northeast wind at 15-25 mph… and waves will continue to build tomorrow, with 3-5 foot waves tomorrow, then growing larger on Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday. There will also be a threat for a storm surge, large waves and coastal flooding.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and is our area is put under a hurricane watch, it would likely occur on Wednesday. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.

Hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds, and if a hurricane warning is issued for our area, that would occur Wednesday night or Thursday. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) tonight and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – depending on the track of the storm, heavy rain is possible. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday with tropical storm force or even hurricane force winds possible depending on the track of the storm.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 11am:

The 11am forecast track for Hurricane Matthew now has the storm making landfall Saturday morning near Ocean Isle Beach.

Firstly, Matthew still remains a dangerous Cat 4 hurricane and is moving north at 10 mph, heading towards the eastern Cuba. Max sustained winds are 145 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 950 mb.

matthew-11am

A Hurricane Watch has now been issued from Deerfield Beach, Florida to the Volusia/Brevard county line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys to south of Deerfield Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern & central Bahamas.

The official NHC forecast has adjusted the track of Matthew. Previously, Matthew paralleled the coast much of the way up South Carolina, potentially making landfall somewhere along the Outer Banks. The forecast now has the storm still paralleling the coast of Florida, but taking more of a northward track and eventually making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane Saturday at 8am near Ocean Isle Beach.

nc-landfall

Remember that this forecast is still likely to change over the next few days, but a storm landfall just to the north of the North Carolina/South Carolina border would mean the heaviest rain would probably be experienced in North Carolina – though we will still deal with rain, some heavy, as the storm approaches late this week and continues northward. Regardless of landfall, tropical storm and possibly hurricane force winds will still be an issue for us as the storm approaches late Thursday and throughout Friday. Rough surf, storm surge, and beach erosion will also be a major concern as Matthew approaches.

11am-track

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Tuesday, October 4, 8am:

Dangerous Hurricane Matthew continues its northward track moving over Haiti this morning. The eye of Matthew made landfall at 7 am Tuesday near Les Anglais in western Haiti. As of 8 am, the storm was 10 miles east of Tiburon Haiti, and 125 miles south of the eastern tip of Cuba. Max sustained winds are 145 mph, and the storms speed is 9 mph toward the north.

8am-matthew

We could see Hurricane Watches issued later this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern & central Bahamas.

matthew-1

The current forecast track has Matthew along the Florida Coast, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane, by late Friday. The National Hurricane Center forecast still shows Matthew hugging the South Carolina coast as a Category 2 hurricane on Saturday. Models aren’t all in consensus on the timing but are trending toward the storm being along the Grand Strand late Saturday. You notice in our StormTracker13 Hurricane Forecast cone that the cone of uncertainty is still fairly large heading into Saturday, and the forecast could change dramatically over the next few days.

matthew-2

With a track closer to the coast our concerns rise. Very rough surf, erosion and coastal flooding will be a significant concern with a track closer to the coast. Heavy rain could be more of a concern if the storm tracks closer to the coast, including inland areas depending on how much further the track shifts to the west. And with the track staying to the west, tropical storm force winds and potentially even hurricane force winds will be a concern – this will be very dependent on how close this storm is to the coast and where you are in relation to the coast.


Update: Tuesday, October 4, 5am:

The eye of Hurricane Matthew, still a dangerous Category 4 storm, is approaching the southwest peninsula of Haiti. Max sustained winds remain at 145 mph, and the storm is moving to the north at 9 mph – so picking up a little bit of speed. The minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern & central Bahamas.

5am-matthew

The forecast for Matthew has the storm passing over southwestern Haiti during the next few hours, bringing 15-25 inches of rainfall with isolated places seeing upwards of 40 inches. The storm will approach eastern Cuba later this morning, the southern Bahamas later today, and the central and northern Bahamas tonight and heading into Wednesday.

matthew-1

As the models continue to take the storm further west on its track, we are watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas for Friday and Saturday. We have to keep in mind that the forecast is likely to change as we get closer to the end of the week – we still have to see how the storm interacts with high pressure in the Atlantic as well as a trough in the Gulf of Mexico.

matthew-3

Our potential impacts remain the same this morning:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) today and tomorrow due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – depending on the track of the storm, heavy rain is possible. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy today through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday with tropical storm force or even hurricane force winds possible depending on the track of the storm.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.


 

Update: Monday, October 3, 11pm: 

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 11pm was located 190 miles SW of Port-au-Prince Haiti. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern, central, and northwestern Bahamas.

At 11pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 145mph and was moving N at 7mph. Minimum central pressure remained at 934mb.

14570570_1216543995068286_2675194635553422637_o

The forecast over the next 18 hours has Matthew bringing life threatening wind, rain and storm surge to portions of Haiti. The current forecast has the center of Matthew approaching southwestern Haiti tonight, moving near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and moving near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

We are watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday.

The 11pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 65 miles southeast of the Grand Strand by 2pm Saturday. Since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, large waves and some coastal flooding along the Grand Strand with this path.

14566433_1216548868401132_6248846042930938736_o

The storm track shifted to the west from the previous forecasts on Monday, and represents a greater threat to the eastern Carolinas. In this scenario, we would see winds increasing this week with some showers possible Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) Tuesday and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – depending on the track of the storm, heavy rain is possible. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday with tropical storm force or even hurricane force winds possible depending on the track of the storm.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Monday, October 3, 8pm: 

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 8pm was located 200 miles SW of Port-au-Prince Haiti. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern & central Bahamas.

At 8pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 140mph and was moving NNE at 8mph. Minimum central pressure is down to 934mb.

14500699_1216458835076802_2074449530244158571_o

 

The forecast over the next 24 hours has Matthew bringing life threatening wind, rain and storm surge to portions of Haiti. The current forecast has the center of Matthew approaching southwestern Haiti tonight, moving near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and moving near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

We are watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday.

The 8pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 65 miles southeast of the Grand Strand by 2pm Saturday. Since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, large waves and some coastal flooding along the Grand Strand with this path.

14567400_1216343018421717_4166726031886649805_o

This track is a significant shift to the west from the previous forecasts, and represents a greater threat to the eastern Carolinas. In this scenario, we would see winds increasing this week with some showers possible Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

Potential impacts:

Waves – choppy (3-5 feet) Tuesday and Wednesday due to a gusty northeast wind. Swells from Matthew could arrive Thursday, and will build on Friday if the storm approaches, or moves by out to sea.

Rain – depending on the track of the storm, heavy rain is possible. The ground across the eastern Carolinas is still saturated due to heavy rain in September, so any heavy rain can lead to flash flooding.

Wind – it will be breezy Tuesday through Thursday because of the pressure difference between Hurricane Matthew and an area of high pressure over New England. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday with tropical storm force or even hurricane force winds possible depending on the track of the storm.

Storm Surge – storm surge and coastal flooding is dependent on the exact track of the storm. A landfall to the south of the Grand Strand, or an extended period with strong easterly winds will cause coastal flooding. A track to the east will lower the coastal flooding risk.

Tornadoes – tornadoes occur to the right of the center of the storm. A landfall south of the Grand Strand will increase the risk for tornadoes.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Monday, October 3, 5pm: 

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 5pm was located 225 miles SW of Port-au-Prince Haiti. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern & central Bahamas.

At 5pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 140mph and was moving north at 7mph. Minimum central pressure remained at 940mb.

14480550_1216337991755553_5150701084055030919_o

The forecast over the next 24 hours has Matthew bringing life threatening wind, rain and storm surge to portions of Haiti. The current forecast has the center of Matthew approaching southwestern Haiti tonight, moving near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and moving near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

We are watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday.

The 5pm National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to be 65 miles southeast of the Grand Strand by 2pm Saturday. Since Matthew is such a large storm, we would have heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, large waves and some coastal flooding along the Grand Strand with this path.

14567400_1216343018421717_4166726031886649805_o

This track is a significant shift to the west from the previous forecasts, and represents a greater threat to the eastern Carolinas. In this scenario, we would see winds increasing this week with some showers possible Thursday. Rain and stronger winds would arrive late Friday and continue through Saturday.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Monday, October 3, 2pm: 

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous Category 4 storm, and at 2pm was located 250 miles SW of Port-au-Prince Haiti. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.

At 2pm, Matthew had sustained winds at 140mph and was moving north at 6mph. Minimum central pressure was down to 940mb.

14559996_1216237888432230_1371345991094994738_o

The forecast over the next 24 hours has Matthew bringing life threatening wind, rain and storm surge to portions of Haiti. The current forecast has the center of Matthew approaching southwestern Haiti tonight, moving near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and moving near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

We are watching Hurricane Matthew for potential impacts in our part of the Carolinas Friday and Saturday. All impacts on our weather depend on the track of the storm, and there is still enough uncertainty that the forecast will likely change between now and Friday.

14468787_1216279545094731_6519745258280906035_o

The 2pm National Hurricane Center forecastcalls for Hurricane Matthew to be 150 miles southeast of the Grand Strand by 8am Saturday. Since Matthew is such a large storm, we would still have heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, large waves and some coastal flooding along the Grand Strand with this path.

This morning’s run of the computer models have shifted westward, closer to the coast. A closer track would bring heavier rain, stronger wind and rougher waves to the coast.

Keep in mind, that the forecast will likely change over the next few days. Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, and know what you will do if a hurricane watch or warning is issued.

Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of expected tropical storm force winds, and hurricane warnings are issued 36 hours before expected tropical storm force winds. During a hurricane watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials. During a hurricane warning, complete storm preparations and immediately leave the threatened area if directed by local officials.

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Update: Monday, October 3, 11am:

Little changes are expected to Hurricane Matthew over the next few days but as of this 11am update the winds have picked up a little to 140mph and central pressure has dropped a few more millibars to 941mb.

11am-matthew

Forecast models are still showing good agreement for the next 2-3 days with slight weakening between days 2 to 3 due to land interaction from Haiti and eastern Cuba. Matthew is still forecasted to be a major (Cat 3) hurricane as it travels over the Bahamas and make a slight more north-north west move, bringing it close to the U.S. mainland. The initial north-north west move is due to a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. Matthew will then interact with a trough the extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico, across Florida and into the NW Caribbean. This will help direct it back onto a more northerly track before turning more to the NE throughout the weekend. (see graphic below)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Monday, October 3, 6am: 

Matthew continues its slow progression to the north as a Category 4 hurricane. Max winds decreased to 130 mph after an eyewall replacement cycle. It is moving northward at 6 mph with minimum central pressure is 943 mb.

6am-matthew

The hurricane is expected to move generally northward around a subtropical ridge over the west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days. Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water while it moves northward towards western Haiti/eastern Jamaica.  Some restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall cycles that are hard to predict.

matthew1

Once Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is forecast to turn north-northwestward in southeasterly flow between the Atlantic ridge and a trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with the high terrain of eastern Cuba, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the Bahamas.

matthew2

The models are in fairly good agreement through the next 3 days, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5.

matthew3

matthew4

It is too soon to know the exact track Matthew might take or the expanse of its impact for our area so we’ll continue to keep a close eye on it.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Sunday, October 2, 11pm: 

Matthew continues its slow progression to the north as a Category 4 hurricane. Max winds remain at 145 mph, the storm is 255 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica, and the movement is northward at 5 mph. Minimum central pressure is 943 mb.

11pm

Widespread life-threatening flooding is expected for the Caribbean islands as the storm moves north over the next few days. Matthew will move over the Bahamas by Wednesday and Thursday, then move north from the Bahamas, staying off the coast of Florida Thursday into Friday.

11pm-plots

The question for us now is how close to the Carolina coast will Matthew get? Whatever we see from Matthew most likely will be between Friday and Sunday, but the uncertainty with how close the storm will get to our coast makes the impact forecast tricky. Right now it’s safe to say that we’ll likely be experiencing rough surf and breezy conditions next weekend, and potentially dealing with storm surge issues. If the center of the storm stays to the east, like many of the models are suggesting at this point, rain likely wouldn’t be as much of an issue for South Carolina. The NHC forecast has the storm at Category 2 strength by Friday – with max winds of 105 mph.

 

Update: Sunday, October 2, 8pm:

Little has changed since 5pm – Matthew remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with max winds at 145 mph. The storm hasn’t moved much, now only 265 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica. The minimum central pressure is 945 mb, and the storm’s motion remains in a northwest direction at 5 mph.

8pm

Matthew’s track still has the storm approaching Haiti and Jamaica tomorrow, and reaching the Bahamas by Wednesday. Once the storm heads north of the Bahamas, and the question becomes its impact on the east coast of the United States, it’s still too early to rule anything out. Models seem to be suggesting that the center of the storm will stay to the east, but just how far east will be the question – and ultimately will be the main factor regarding the storm’s impact on us heading into next week. We’ll continue to follow this and keep you updated on the blog.

8pm-track

 

Update: Sunday, October 2, 5pm: 

Hurricane Matthew, still at Category 4 strength, continues to the northwest at 5 mph with max winds of 145 mph and higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945 mb. The storm is about 270 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

5pm

The storm is expected to turn north tonight, approaching southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Matthew is expected to reach the Bahamas by Wednesday, still at powerful hurricane strength. Then the question becomes what track does the storm take as it moves up the eastern coast of the United States…it’s still too early to tell exactly what impacts we could be dealing with in South Carolina due to Matthew, but we could see some rain at the coast Friday into Saturday and we can expect breezy conditions heading into the end of the week along with rough surf conditions.

plots

 

Update: Sunday, October 2, 8am:

Hurricane Matthew remains at Category 4 strength with max winds at 150 mph, and moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure is 940 mb.

matthew-currents-8am

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas. The Bahamas are also starting to stay more aware of the storm’s potential track and its impacts as the forecast calls for the storm to remain at Category 3 strength as it approaches the Bahamas on Wednesday.

matthew-track-8am

Great uncertainty still exists with this forecast as we head past Wednesday, but Horry County has recently upgraded to OPCON 4, moving to “alert” status and beginning discussions with South Carolina Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, and other coastal communities.

 

 

 

Update: Saturday, October 1, 5pm:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Jamaica as Cat 4 Storm Matthew continues on its path towards the island. Matthew is about 385 miles SE of Jamaica with max sustained winds of 150 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 940 mb. The storm is moving to the NW at 3 mph.

matthew-currents-5pm

The storm is expected to pick up speed while making a more drastic turn to the north-northwest by Sunday, then to the north of Monday. Fluctuations in Matthew’s intensity are possible as we head through this weekend, but the storm is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Haiti as well as eastern Cuba.

matthew-track-5pm

 

Update: Saturday, October 1, 8am: 

Matthew remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane this morning with peak winds at 155 mph. The storm actually strengthened into a category 5 hurricane (peak winds at 160 mph) overnight, the first in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007. Fluctuations in Matthew’s intensity are possible as we head through this weekend, but the storm is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday.

matthew-11am

Matthew continues to move to the west at 7 mph, but a turn to the north-northwest is expected for tomorrow. Matthew will continue across the central Caribbean Sea today and tomorrow, approaching Jamaica. With considerable uncertainty still in the forecast track, it’s too soon to say what, if any, impacts we will experience from Hurricane Matthew.

matthew-track-9am

 

Update: Friday, September 30, 8pm: 

14435224_1213711748684844_706944420871687481_o

Matthew continued to rapidly intensify today, and at 8pm was a category 4 hurricane with peak winds at 150mph. The storm is starting to slow down, and will slowly move westward through tomorrow. Late tomorrow or Sunday, Matthew will start to turn to the northwest, then to the north. This will take the hurricane toward Jamaica and western Cuba, perhaps as a major hurricane early next week.

14425385_1090485704362085_2430213268677364727_o

Matthew will likely weaken some if it passes over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. By the middle of next week the storm is forecast to be in the Bahamas or close to Florida. It is still too early to tell if Hurricane Matthew will come toward the Carolinas, but it is definitely a storm to be watched once it moves past Cuba.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Friday, September 30, 11am: 

matthew-7

Matthew is now a major hurricane with 115 mph winds (Category 3). An eye has formed within the last few hours, indicating additional strengthening as well. Matthew has been able to strengthen despite unfavorable upper level atmospheric conditions and 20 mph of wind shear. It is expected to continue moving west at 12 mph today and tomorrow before gradually turning to the north on Sunday. Matthew is expected to maintain strength as a Category 3 storm through Monday, when it will brush Jamaica. The high mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba will weaken Matthew, but it’s expected to remain a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday when it closes in on the Bahamas. There is still a high degree of uncertainty with respect to Matthew’s track, especially Monday onward. It is something we will need to watch closely these next few days

Update: Friday, September 30, 6am: 

Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensified overnight and is now at Category 2 with wind speeds at 100 mph.

matthew-6am

The hurricane will continue to move to the west, slightly south of west today and into Saturday, and then is forecast to make a turn to the north. Matthew is forecasted to increase in strength throughout today and tonight, possibly becoming a major hurricane by early Saturday morning.

matthew-1

The timing on the turn to the north is critical to the long term track forecast of the hurricane.

matthew-3 matthew-5

An earlier turn north will increase the odds that the storm will move out to sea. A later turn to the north will increase the odds that the storm will impact the United States. There is will a high amount of uncertainly in the long term track of the storm.

matthew-4matthew-6

Although most computer models keep Matthew out to sea off the East Coast of the U.S., the latest model run does have more models tracking a little further west than previous model runs. A few even have potential landfall in southern Florida. As always, models usually have better agreement after the storm makes the turn to the north, which should happen this weekend. We’ll watch it closely as it makes its progression to the west then to the north.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Thursday, September 29, 8pm: 

Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane today, and at 8pm has peak winds at 75mph. Matthew is moving to the west at 15mph.

 

 

14409624_1212806008775418_4997085537111154370_o

 

Matthew is moving across the Caribbean at a fairly low latitude. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for parts of the coast of Columbia… which is a rare occurrence. Since the storm is so close to South America, it will be susceptible to wind shear and dry, continental air. This will keep any strengthening slow for the next couple of days. The hurricane will continue to move to the west on Friday and into Saturday, and then is forecast to make a turn to the north. The timing on the turn to the north is critical to the long term track forecast of the hurricane. An earlier turn north will increase the odds that the storm will move out to sea. A later turn to the north will increase the odds that the storm will impact the United States. There is will a high amount of uncertainly in the long term track of the storm. Although most computer models keep Matthew out to sea off the East Coast of the U.S., this storm bears watching.

14444769_1212716412117711_6362015142253712541_o

The high altitude G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet has been gathering weather information from the atmosphere surrounding Hurricane Matthew this afternoon and evening. As this information is incorporated into this evenings computer models, they should have more accurate results.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Update: Thursday, September 29, 11am: 

Tropical storm Matthew formed late Wednesday and continues to slowly intensify. Winds are around 70 mph and the central pressure is dropping, now at 996 mb.

matthew-11am

Matthew is currently being influenced by moderate southwesterly shear.  Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight strengthening is forecasted over the next 24 hours.  The shear is forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days.

matthew-forecast

Matthew is moving to the west at 15 mph.  The tropical storm is expected to move westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic during the next couple of days. Matthew should turn northwestward into the start of the weekend when it approaches the western edge of the ridge.

matthew-forecast2

Matthew is forecast to turn northward into Sunday while a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. As it moves to the north it is forecasted to intensify into a Cat 2 storm, possibly making landfall somewhere around eastern Cuba by Monday afternoon.

matthew-forecast3

Matthew will continue on its northerly track across Cuba, towards the Bahamas into Tuesday. It is forecasted to decrease a little in intensity, back to a Cat 1 Hurricane after crossing Cuba but could possibly restrengthen as it moves further north.

matthew-forecast4

Forecast models are still in fairly good agreement that Matthew will pass to our east, far enough off shore that it will have little effect on our weather by mid-week, next week. With that being said, it still warrants close attention. The models still have a fairly big spread on when and exactly where Matthew makes its turn, something I’ll continue to watch closely.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

We’re tracking another tropical wave as it continues to gain strength and become better organized. It’s located about 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados and appears to lack a closed circulation at this time but conditions are favorable for continued development.

capture

A tropical depression or storm could form as early as later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

capture1

Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to tropical storm force winds are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

capture2

Models are in good agreement for the track and speed of the system for the rest of the week. They do start to diverge as we head into the weekend.

capture3

All have the storm making the turn to the North through the weekend, but the location and timing of the turn are still far off.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s