UPDATE MONDAY 8:40AM:
Weather Alert Day Continues for this Monday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing through early Tuesday, with flash flooding likely. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area from midnight until 8 AM Tuesday. Flood warnings and advisorys are already starting to pop out with some road issues being reported.
Most places will pick up 3-4″ of rain, but isolated areas could receive as much as 7″ of rain.
Roadway ponding is likely as well as flooding in low lying areas and places that tend to flood. This morning and through the afternoon it’s possible for one or two strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning but the main threat with this event is going to be the heavy rain and flash flooding as a second system, a very powerful but slow moving low pressure system, moves across the Carolinas.
We’ll have widespread rain and storms through the morning commute and then rounds of showers and storms throughout the afternoon. There will be pockets of heavy rain within the rounds that rotate in with an area of low pressure.
This system has cooler air behind it and highs tomorrow and Tuesday will stay in the 70’s. We’ll dry out on later on Tuesday and the rest of the week looks dry. Temperatures, while initially cool, will warm up quickly later in the week as high pressure once again moves back offshore and wind returns from the south. By the end of the work week inland highs will again be near 90.
The Weather Alert Day continues for the remainder of today and tonight. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern heading into the overnight hours and through all of tomorrow.
Because a front has stalled right across us, we are still in a Slight Risk for severe storms today, but energy is not as focused in the atmosphere as previously thought. Most showers and storms through the early evening should be isolated to scattered, but we still can’t completely rule out an isolated rotating storm. Damaging 60+ mph wind gusts are another hazard from any stray storm through early evening.
There may be a break in storms in the late evening as we wait for the second part of this system to approach. It’s a very strong low pressure system and cold front that is in Georgia currently. This system is powerful but very slow moving. With the amount of moisture in the air as well as how slow this system is moving, heavy rain and flash flooding will be a concern areawide from midnight through early Tuesday morning. There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12 AM Monday through 8 AM Tuesday. Thunderstorms will likely be embedded within the heavy rain tomorrow as well.
Futuretrack rain estimates anywhere from rain totals of 3-4″ areawide with locally higher amounts possible. Some isolated locations on the high end may receive up to 7″ of rain between now and early Tuesday morning. Flash flooding will be a concern as soils get saturated from the very heavy rain, especially in low lying areas or places that flood easily. Urban flooding will be a problem as well. Excessive ponding on roads will be an issue for the morning commute tomorrow, and some roads may become impassible.
Rain and storms will continue on and off through all of tomorrow and into Tuesday morning. By 8 AM Tuesday, the center of the low pressure should be overhead or slightly offshore, bringing an end to the excessive rainfall. As the system slowly rotates out of here later on Tuesday, there will be a few more stray showers on the back side of the low but should not amount to much additional rain totals.
A very complex storm system setting up for this afternoon and overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a “Slight” Risk for severe weather today and tonight.
A front has pushed into our area this Sunday morning and will remain stalled through much of the day. This will create a big temperature difference across the area. North of the front temperatures will remain cool with highs into the upper 60s to low 70s. South of the front we’ll warm into the mid and upper 70s. The front will start to lift north as another piece of energy out west starts to head this way. With the two systems coming together and enough lift in the atmosphere, scattered showers and thunderstorms will start to develop late morning through early afternoon. It is possible for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out.
Timing for any tornado activity looks to be between 12pm and 6pm. However, the main threat with this event is going to be the heavy rain and potential for flash flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect for all of our counties until 8:30am on Monday. Round 1 will be late morning through early evening, here, expect the showers and storms to be scattered about, and this is where we will have the isolated severe threat. We may get a break in the activity before round 2 moves in overnight with more widespread showers and storms. Rainfall totals look to be near 3-6inches. The heaviest of the rain will start to wind down by Monday afternoon but a few showers may linger into Tuesday morning. This system does have some cooler air behind it and highs early next week will drop into the 70’s. We’ll dry out on later on Tuesday and the rest of the week looks dry as temperatures warm back up again. By the end of the work week inland highs will again be near 90.