The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of are area From the Pee Dee to the Grand Strand in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather Monday evening.
The Primary threat will be damaging straight line winds in excess of 60mph, hail, lightning and heavy rain. While the tornado threat is very low, an isolated spin up can’t be ruled out. Timing for these storms look to be after 6pm for the Pee Dee and after 8pm for the Grand Strand through about midnight.
The high pressure that was keeping a cap on convection and the hot and humid conditions the past several days will slip farther east as a strong cold front approaches from the west later today. This will set the stage for an active afternoon and evening.
A very warm and humid air mass will be in place ahead of this front, winds will also be strong. Expect sustained winds 15-30mph ahead of any storm activity.
A very potent “squal” line will develop ahead of the actual cold front. Some of the models differ on timing, but a good time frame for any of these storms will be around 5-6pm west of 1-95 and then continue to push through the Pee Dee around 7-9pm. The main threat will be the damaging straight line winds in excess of 60mph. It is possible for an isolated tornado but this time it looks like the winds will be our primary threat.
As we go through the evening, the loss of day time heating will help to weaken some of these storms as they make their way to the Grand Strand from 8pm to Midnight. Here, it’s still possible for damaging winds and heavy rain, but the threat will be going down a bit. After Midnight, we’ll still run a chance for some lingering showers and storms, but the severe threat will be gone.