Tropical Update

8:00 AM-Tuesday, August 29

UPDATE: The Tropical Storm Watch has been Canceled as the storm system has moved just north of us. We’ll still see a few light rain showers through 10am along the Grand Strand then drying through the day. Breezy, winds will remain 15-25mph then calming down through the day. Rain fall totals between 1-2.5 inches of rain fell in areas east of I-95.

4:00 PM – Monday, August 28

A Weather Alert Day is in effect through tonight.

An area of unorganized tropical moisture along the Carolina coast will bring the threat for heavy rain tonight. There is still a chance that a tropical storm could form in this area, but even if it does, it will not affect our expected weather.

The main impacts from this system are rough surf along the coast and the potential for heavy rain. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Horry and Georgetown Counties, and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect east of I-95.

Rainfall amounts will average 2-4 inches in Horry and Georgetown Counties tonight. Some spots could see as much as 6 inches of rain. This will cause street and small stream flooding. Partly of Williamsburg, Florence, Marion, Dillon and Robeson Counties could see as much as 1-2 inches of rain. Spotty flooding is possible in those areas. Heavy rain is not expected west of I-95.

It will stay windy overnight tonight with a northeast wind at 20-30 mph, and gusts to 40mph. Even if this system becomes a tropical storm, the stronger tropical storm force winds will stay offshore.

The worst of this storm will be this evening, with the heaviest rain falling through 1am. After 1am the heaviest rain will shift north of our area and we will be left with on and off showers. A few of these showers could linger into Tuesday morning, but in general, our weather will improve through the day on Tuesday.

9:00 PM – Sunday August 27th

Discussion

The StormTracker13 Weather team is keeping an eye on an area of low pressure off the coast of Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Horry and Georgetown counties from Monday through Monday night. The forecast is for this system to develop into a weak tropical storm overnight Sunday and move along the South Carolina coastline Monday and into Monday night. Currently, the system is stationary and even though there is a lot of thunderstorm activity near the center, there is no well defined center of circulation at this time. While the water temperatures are very warm under the system, other conditions are not great for further development where it sits in the Atlantic right now. Upper level winds are very fast above the system keeping it from strengthening rapidly, if at all. The National Hurricane Center is still giving it a 90% chance of developing sometime over the next 24-48 hours; if it develops, it would be named Irma. The system will begin to move slowly northward overnight becoming slightly better organized. The track takes it right up the coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Regardless of tropical development or not, rain and gusty winds are expected along the coastline in South and North Carolina Monday evening. This is expected to be a weak, short lived event with it pulling away quickly Tuesday morning.

Timing

The main impacts felt in South Carolina will begin sometime as early as Monday morning with rain bands at the coast but main impacts will be felt between 5 pm Monday evening to midnight. The event is expected to be rather short lived as the system pulls away quickly early Tuesday morning.

Impacts

As of 9 pm Sunday, this seems to be mainly a coast event. Impacts will be felt less the further inland you go. Main impacts to the coastline include rain, wind and rough surf.

Rain fall amounts will be between 1 to 3 inches along the coast in Horry and Georgetown, with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches. Inland, amounts are much less with only a quarter of an inch expected in the Pee Dee.

Winds will be gusty Monday with sustained, at times, between 25 and 35 mph. Brief gusts could be as high as 45 mph. The storm is forecast to stay as weak of a tropical storm as it can be with winds at 40 mph.

Most of the impacts will be to the coastal waters with rough surf already being reported. Seas could be as high as 8 feet off the coast and rip currents will be strong. It is advised to stay out of the water over the coming days.

 

 

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s